Monday, December 11, 2017

Economic Cycle

Understanding the Economic Cycle

All countries experience regular ups and downs in the growth of output, jobs, income and spending.
UK Real GDP
Explaining the economic cycle
Boom
  • boom occurs when real national output is rising at a rate faster than the trend rate of growth. Some of the characteristics of a boom include:
  • A fast growth of consumption helped by rising real incomes, strong confidence and a surge in house prices and share prices
  • A pick up in demand for capital goods as businesses invest in extra capacity to meet strong demand and to make higher profits
  • More jobs created and falling unemployment and higher real wages
  • High demand for imports which may cause the economy to run a larger trade deficitbecause it cannot supply all of the goods and services that consumers are buying
  • Government tax revenues will be rising as people earn and spend more and companies are making larger profits – this gives the government money to increase spending in areas such as education, the environment, health and transport
  • An increase in inflationary pressures if the economy overheats and has a positive output gap
Slowdown
  • A slowdown occurs when the rate of growth decelerates – but national output is still rising
  • If the economy grows without falling into recession, this is called a soft-landing
Recession
A recession means a fall in the level of real national output i.e. a period when growth is negative, leading to a contraction in employment, incomes and profits.
A simple definition:
  • A fall in real GDP for two consecutive quarters i.e. six months
A more detailed definition:
  • A recession is a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and retail sales.
There are many symptoms of a recession – here is a selection of key indicators:
  1. A fall in purchases of components and raw materials (i.e. intermediate products)
  2. Rising unemployment and fewer job vacancies available for people looking for work
  3. A rise in the number of business failures and businesses announcing lower profits and investment
  4. A decline in consumer and business confidence
  5. A contraction in consumer spending & a rise in the percentage of income saved
  6. A drop in the value of exports and imports of goods and services
  7. Large price discounts offered by businesses in a bid to sell their excess stocks
  8. Heavy de-stocking as businesses look to cut back when demand is weak – causes lower output
  9. Government tax revenues are falling and welfare benefit spending is rising
  10. The budget (fiscal) deficit is rising quickly
The difference between a recession and a depression
  • slump or a depression is a prolonged and deep recession leading to a significant fall in output and average living standards
  • A depression is where real GDP falls by more than 10% from the peak of the cycle to the trough
  • An example of a country that has suffered a depression in recent years is Greece. National output has fallen in six successive years and real GDP is more than 25% lower than at the peak of the cycle
Recession and depression
Recovery
  • This occurs when real GDP picks up from the trough reached at the low point of the recession.
  • The state of business confidence plays a key role here. Any recovery might be subdued if businesses anticipate that it will be temporary or weak in scale.
  • A recovery might follow a deliberate attempt to stimulate demand. In the UK we have seen
  1. Cuts in interest rates – the policy interest rate fell to 0.5% in the Autumn of 2008 and they have stayed at this low level since then
  2. A rise in government borrowing
  3. A policy of quantitative easing (QE) by the Bank of England to pump more money into the banking system in a bid to increase the supply of loans – now worth more than £375 billion.
Why is GDP growth difficult to forecast?
When economists make forecasts about the future path for an economy they have to accept the inevitability of forecast errors. No macroeconomic model can hope to cope with the fluctuations and volatility of indicators such as inflation, exchange rates and global commodity prices.
  • Uncertain business confidence levels
  • Fluctuations in exchange rate
  • External events e.g. volatile oil and gas prices
  • Uncertain reactions to macro policy changes
  • Rate of business job creation hard to forecast

MEASURES TO RAISE THE PROPENSITY TO CONSUME



Measures to Raise the Propensity to Consume
In the short period due to psychological and institutional factors, it is very difficult to stimulate consumption function which possible in long-run measures to raise propensity to consume in long run are as follows:
  1. Income Redistribution:
Propensity to consume of poor people is higher than propensity to consume of rich people. Therefore, redistribution of income helps to raise propensity to consume if redistribution of income favours poor. Thus, propensity to consume can be raised transferring income from the rich to poor.
  1. Social security:
Various type of social security measures raise propensity to consume in long run. For example provision for unemployment compensation, old age allowance, widow allowance, etc., remove uncertainties in future. Therefore, tendency to save is reduced and people start to consume more.
(3)  Wage policy:
Wage rates are considered measure to raise consumption in both short-run and long-run point of view. But in short run, labour productivity can’t be increased more will harm the labours more than benefit because increased wages will increase cost which may lead to unemployment. Thus in long-run, if wage rate and productivity of labour both are increased in same way then it will tend to raise level of consumption in economy.
(4)  Easy credit facilities:
Consumption function shifts upward by the help of cheap and easy credit facilities.
(5)  Advertisement and publicity:
In modern time, advertisement and publicity, propaganda and salesmanship are effective tools to attract consumers towards commodities because these make the consumers familiar with use of product. It raises consumption function of people.
(6)  Development of infrastructures:
            Development of infrastructures like transport, communication, hydropower, etc., helps to shift consumption function upward.
(7)  Urbanization:
In urban areas people are highly influenced by the demonstration effect. This shifts the consumption function upward.

Tuesday, September 5, 2017

Benefit-Cost Analysis,

    Benefit-Cost Analysis, from the Concise Encyclopedia of Economics
    Whenever people decide whether the advantages of a particular action are likely to outweigh its drawbacks, they engage in a form of benefit-cost analysis....
    What if a change benefits some people at the expense of others? John R. Hicks, biography from the Concise Encyclopedia of Economics
    Hicks's fourth contribution was the idea of the compensation test. Before his test economists were hesitant to say that one particular outcome was preferable to another. The reason was that even a policy that benefited millions of people could hurt some people. Free trade in cars, for example, helps millions of American consumers at the expense of thousands of American workers and owners of stock in U.S. auto companies. How did an economist judge whether the help to some outweighed the hurt to others?...

In the News and Examples

    Costs and Benefits of going to the dentist: The Marginal Tooth, by Bryan Caplan on EconLog
    Every patient gets the same lecture: "If you don't floss, you'll loose your teeth. I told you this last time, and you're still not flossing!" Has it ever occurred to dentists that the marginal benefit of flossing may be less than its marginal cost?...
    Costs and Benefits of preventing crime: Crime, from the Concise Encyclopedia of Economics
    Economists approach the analysis of crime with one simple assumption—that criminals are rational people. A mugger is a mugger for the same reason I am an economist—because it is the most attractive alternative available to him. The decision to commit a crime, like any other economic decision, can be analyzed as a choice among alternative combinations of costs and benefits....
    Costs and Benefits of recycling: Recycling, from the Concise Encyclopedia of Economics
    Recycling is the process of converting waste products into reusable materials. Recycling differs from reuse, which simply means using a product again. According to the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), about 30 percent of U.S. solid waste (i.e., the waste that is normally handled through residential and commercial garbage-collection systems) is recycled. About 15 percent is incinerated and about 55 percent goes into landfills.

    Recycling is appealing because it seems to offer a way to simultaneously reduce the amount of waste disposed in landfills and to save natural resources....
    Hidden Costs. The promoter of an idea typically plays up the benefits and plays down the costs. Economists delight in uncovering those hidden costs and often enjoy a moment of fun by taking the promoter by surprise.
    See: "What is Seen and What is Not Seen", Frédéric Bastiat(pronounced bas-tee-AH). Famous essay about what economists do, emphasizing their role in pointing out the unseen, unspoken costs behind great-sounding ideas. Examples include national security, the arts, taxes, infrastructure, international trade, jobs, credit, business, and private decisions. Also available: Audio at CommonSenseEconomics.com
      Suggested Excerpt (8 paragraphs). Hidden costs and economists' goals defined, plus an example: Does breaking a window help the economy by creating jobs for glass-repairers?

A Little History

    However hard it is to total up the costs and benefits (or pros and cons) to make individual decisions like "Should I rent this apartment?" or "Should I spend a year abroad?", it's even harder when groups are involved. Should one person decide for the group? Should it be decided by 50-50 vote, or representation? Individuals do pretty well weighing the costs and benefits for close groups, like our families, by proxy—our parents, brothers and sisters, children, and spouses. But each extension to a wider group gets harder to justify. How should the desires be balanced when considering broad groups of people with different goals and opporunities—from extended family, to high school friends, to college communities, to towns, cities, religious groups, cultural affiliations—or a whole nation or cross-national cultural group? How can we decide when there is disagreement or conflict? See the biography of Nobel Prize winner Paul Samuelson for aggregating utility functions and revealed preference.
    [Samuelson] introduced the concept of "revealed preference" in a 1938 article. His goal was to be able to tell by observing a consumer's choices whether he or she was better off after a change in prices, and indeed, Samuelson determined the circumstances under which one could tell. The consumer revealed by choices his or her preferences--hence the term "revealed preferences."

Friday, September 1, 2017

MONETARY POLICY, CONCEPT, OBJECTIVES, IMPORTANCE

MONETARY POLICY


1       Concept of Monetary Policy
            Monetary policy is one of the successful macro-economic policies. It has important role for in general economic management and growth. Monetary policy is the work out of the central bank to control over the money supply as a tool for achieving the objectives of universal economic policy. Monetary policies attempt to make different types of good quality economic activities mainly through money and credit supply as well as interest rate. Similarly, monetary policy will be more successful through the period of galloping or hyperinflation.
            The process, formulation, completion and estimate of monetary policy are calculated by the central bank under the rules and directives of government of the state as well as increase and development of an economy. Therefore, monetary policy is adopted to achieve different types of economic objectives like accelerated economic growth and progress, full service, price constancy, economic constancy etc. So monetary policy can be defined as the management of the expansion and contraction of quantity of money in movement. So we can say, monetary policy can change quantity, quality, availability and cost of money as well as rate of interest, investment, service, output, revenue etc. for the balance economic growth and development.
            According to Edward Shapiro "Monetary policy is the exercise of the central bank's control over the money supply as an instrument for achieving the objective of general economic policy". In the words of D.C. Rowen, "The monetary policy is defined as discretionary action undertaken by the authorities designed to influence (a) the supply of money, (b) cost of money or rate of interest, and (c) the availability of money". According to RP Kent monetary policy is, "The management of expansion and contraction of the volume of money in circulation for the explicit purpose of attaining a specific objective such as full employment".
            Hence, we can say monetary policy is a purposeful effort of central bank to control monetary policy and ratio of credit in an economy for achieving definite objective like economic stability and best allocation of resources. So monetary policy is measured as an important tool of the government to plan various types of economic policies. The main instruments of monetary policy and bank rate, open marketplace operation and required reserve ratio.
            Generally, there are two types of monetary policies according to economic arrangement of an economy i.e. expansionary monetary policy and concretionary monetary policy.
(A)  Concretionary Monetary Policy
            The usefulness of concretionary monetary policy is appeared through the time of hyperinflation, where prices are rising very rapidly and most of the economic variables start to fall. In such state, monetary policies are formulated to manage money supply and expenditure pattern by lowering the insist for consumption and investment some techniques for concretionary monetary prices are:
(a)  Selling the bonds, securities and treasury bills in the open market.
(b)  Increasing the discount rate.
(c)   Rising the minimum required reserve ratio.

(A)  Expansionary Monetary Policy
            The monetary policy, which normally expands money supply and credit in an economy are called expansionary monetary policy. Usually, to increase various economic activities in increasing countries such as trade, commerce, industry and infrastructure development; the expansionary monetary policies are applied some techniques for expansionary monetary policy are:
(a)  buy of bonds and funds bills in open market.
(b)  Lowering the diminution rate or bank rate.
(c)  Lowering the requisite reserve ratio.

            Hence, the monetary policy used by the central bank to fulfill the objective of country's economic policy which is related to supply of money, credit creation, interest rate, exchange rate etc.

2       Objectives of Monetary Policy
            Monetary policy is one of the great tools to stabilize the economic systems. It contains the following objectives:
(i)   Price constancy: The most important objective of monetary policy is to establish internal price stability. Stable price does not means that the average of prices on the general price level should not be allowed to fluctuate beyond certain minimum limit. Price instability creates great disturbances in the economy and helps to create inflation or deflation. Both are economically disturbing and socially undesirable. Both can create problems of production and distribution.
            Thus to establish price stability central bank should properly control the quantity of money and credit. So, the monetary policies are designed by central bank through by changing open market operation, bank rate and minimum required ratio. During the period of inflation, government issues different types securities and the selling of securities in open market absorbs bills and excess money. Similarly, central bank increases bank rate and minimum required ratio to control the problem of inflation.
(ii)  Attain complete service: joblessness is the cancer of an economy. Until the joblessness remains the same, economy cannot progress. joblessness is associated with low investment. Monetary policy can help the economy to achieve full employment through the increment of investment. Unemployment is mainly due to deficiency of investment. The main task of monetary policy is the expansion of money provides and the reduction of interest rate to that optimum level which raises the investment, demand and equals it with full employment.
(iii) Replace rate constancy: It is a traditional objective to establish exchange rate stability, but very important objective of monetary policy. Stable exchange rate helps to create international beliefs and for the promotion of smooth trade. Fluctuations in the exchange rates adversely affects in the volume of trade, price levels, production, balance of payment, foreign investment etc.
            The objective of exchange rate stability is achieved through establishing equilibrium in the balance of payment. Monetary policy plays an important role in bringing balance of payments balance without disturbing the stable exchange rate. The modern welfare governments are more concerned with establishing internal price stability quite than maintaining exchange stability because of international monetary fund.
(iv) Accelerate profitable progress: One of the major objectives of monetary policy is to accelerate economic development. Economic development involves the increase in the productive capacity of the economy by developing additional economic resources, improving technology and exploiting new investment opportunities. For this, it is necessary to increase the rate of capital formation and investment because the levels of saving and investment are very low. Directly or indirectly monetary policy helps to increase capital formation and investment, through encouraging savings and concept of investment.
(v)  Impartiality of cash: various economists such as Robertson, Hayek and Wicksteed developed the neutrality of money. The policy of neutrality of money seeks to do away with the disturbing effect of changes in the quantity of money on important economic variables, like income, output, employment and prices. According to this policy, money supply should be neutral in such a way that money should be neutral its effects. In other words, the changes in money supply should not change the total volume of output and total transactions of goods and services in the economy.
            The policy of neutrality of money is based on the assumption that money is purely a passive factor. It functions only as a medium of exchange. The function of money is only to reproduce the relative values of goods and not to distort them. The exponents of the neutral monetary policy believed that monetary changes are the root case of all economic ills. They bring changes in the real variables such as income, output, employment and relative prices. They cause inequity between demand and supply, consumption and production.
            Thus, according to the policy of impartial money, if the money is made neutral and the money supply is kept constant, there will be no disturbance in the economic system. In such a situation, relative prices will change to the changes in the demand and supply of goods and services, economic resources will be allocated according to the wants of the society, and there will be no inflation and deflation. However, this policy is based on classical assumptions. It cannot control the economic insecurity and fluctuations in the economy.

3.      Importance/Objectives of Monetary Policy in Developing Countries
            The implication of monetary policy may be explained as follows:
            The citizen like inflation, deflation, lack of employment opportunity, investment, output income etc defines developing country as a country where different types of economical and social harms are facing. In developing countries various types of economical problems are solved through the monetary policy. Monetary policy influences most of all inexpensive variables and activities through change in money supply in circulation and rate of interest.
            So suitable monetary is formulated and implemented according to economic structure of an economy. The main importance of monetary policy is developing countries are summarized on following points.
(i)   Progress Role: Monetary policy plays a significant role in developing countries in accelerating economic development by influencing the money supply and rate of interest. Monetary policy is able to create hearten towards investment by the help of scheming inflation and deflation. Similarly, correction of balance of payment plays an important role for over all economic progress. That's why monetary policy is able to run about development activities through by changing bank rate and minimum required ratio.
(ii)  Stepping up to Economic progress: In developing countries, the monetary policy should aim at promoting economic development. The monetary policy can play a vital role in acceleration to economic development. It influences the supply and uses of credit. Controlling inflation and maintaining equilibrium balance of payment.
(iii) Progress of Banking and Financial organizations: One of the main functions of central bank or primary aim of monetary policy is to establish more banks and financial institutions. Underdeveloped countries lack these facilities. These facilities will help in increasing banking habit, mobilizing voluntary savings of the people, channel zing them into productive uses and raising the rate of capital formation.
(iv) Debt organization: In the developing economy, debt management is one of the main functions of monetary policy. The tools under the aims of debt management are deciding correct timing and issuing of government bonds, stabilizing their prices and minimizing the cost of servicing the public debt. These tools collect the means and sources of economic development. Monetary policy helps it in goal specific way.
(v)  Facilitate to manage price increases: Monetary policy is an effective measure to control inflation. It plays a significant role in checking inflation. Increase in government expenditure on developmental schemes increase aggregate demand but collective supply of consumer's goods does not increase in the same time. This increases the price level. The monetary policy controls inflationary tendencies by growing saving, checking expansion of credit by banking system and hopeless deficit financing by the government through tightening monetary policy.
(vi) Help to accurate the unfavorable balance of payment: Monetary policy in the form of interest rate policy plays as important role in corrects the balance of payments deficit. In the developing countries like Nepal, there is serious balance of payment difficulties to fulfill the planned targets of development. To develop infrastructure' such as power, irrigation, transport, etc. and directly productive activities like iron, steel, chemicals, electrical, fertilizers, etc., developing countries have to import capita] equipment, machinery, raw materials, spares and components thereby raising their imports. The exports are almost stagnant. They are high priced due to inflation. As results, an imbalance is created between imports and exports, which lead to misbalance in the balance of payments. Monetary policy can help in decreasing the gap balance of payments deficit through high rate of interest. The high rate of interest attracts the inflow of the foreign investments and help in bridging the balance of payment gap.
(vii) Reduction of Economic Inequality: In an underdeveloped economy, there is wide disparity of income and wealth and absence of an integrated interest rate structure. Monetary policy can play a significant role to maintain equal distribution of income and wealth and a suitable rate of interest rate. The central bank should take effective steps that benefit the poor and to integrate the interest rate structure of the economy. For this, low rate of interest should be fixed for the poor and small farmers, and entrepreneurs and subsidy may be given for them. A suitable interest rate structure encourages savings and investment in economy and discourages unproductive loans and speculative.

4.      Expansionary Monetary Policy to manage Recession or Depression
            When the economy is faced with recession or involuntary cyclical unemployment, which comes due to fall in aggregate demand, the central bank intervenes to cure such a situation. Central bank takes steps to expand the money supply in the economy and lower the rate of interest with a view to increase the aggregate demand that will help in stimulating the economy. The following three monetary policy measures are adopted as a part of an expansionary monetary policy to measures are adopted to cure recession and to establish the equilibrium of national increase at full employment level of output.
(i)   Release marketplace process: The central bank undertakes open market operations and buys securities in the open market. Buying to securities by the central bank, from the public, chiefly from commercial banks will lead to the increase in reserves of the banks or amount of currency with the general public. With greater reserves, commercial banks can issue more credit to the investors and businessmen for undertaking more investment. More private investment will cause aggregate demand curve to shift upward. Thus buying of securities will have an expansionary effect.
(ii)  Reduce in Bank Rate: The Central Bank may lower the bank rate or what is also called discount rate, which is the rate of interest charged by the central bank of country on its loans to commercial banks. At a lower bank rate, the commercial banks will be induced to borrow more from the central bank and will be able to issue more credit at the lower rate of interest to businessmen and investors. This will not only make credit cheaper but also increase the availability of credit or money supply in the economy. The expansion in credit or money supply will increase the investment demand, which will tend to raise aggregate output and income.
(iii) Decrease of Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR): Thirdly, the central bank may reduce the Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) to be kept by the commercial banks. In countries like India, this is a more effective and direct way of expanding credit and increasing money supply in the economy by the central bank. With lower reserve requirements, a large amount of funds is released for providing loans to businessmen and investors. As a result, credit expands and investment increases in the economy, which has an expansionary effect on output and employment.

5       Contraction Monetary Policy to manage Inflation
            When aggregate demands rises sharply due to large consumption and investment expenditure or more importantly, due to the large increase in government expenditure relative to its revenue resulting in huge budge deficits, a demand-pull inflation occurs in the economy. Besides, when there is too much creation of money for one reason or the other, it generates inflationary pressures in the economy. The following monetary measures, which constitute tight money policy, are generally adopted to control inflation:
(i)   Promotion rule Securities: The Central Bank sells the Government securities to the banks, other depository institutions and the general public through open market operations. This action will reduce the reserves with the banks and liquid funds with the general public. With less reserve with the banks, their lending ability will be reduced. Therefore, they will have to reduce their demand deposits by refraining from giving new loans as old loans are paid back. As a result, money supply in the economy will shrink.
(ii)  Add to Bank Rate: The bank rate may also be raised which will discourage the banks to take loans from the central bank. This will tend to reduce their liquidity and also induce them to raise their own lending rates. Thus this will reduce the availability of credit and also raise its cost. This will lead to the reduction in investment spending and help in reducing inflationary pressures.
(iii) Adapting Anti-inflationary actions: The most important anti-inflationary measures are the raising of statutory Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR). To meet the new higher reserve requirements, banks will reduce their lending. This will have a direct effect on the contraction of money supply in the economy and help in controlling demand pull inflation. Besides Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR), the Statutory Liquidity Ratio (SLR) can also be increased through which excess reserves of the banks are mopped up resulting in contraction in credit.
(iv) Use of Qualitative acknowledgment manage calculate: Fourthly, an important anti-inflationary measure is the use of qualitative credit control, namely, rising of minimum margins for obtaining loans from banks against the stocks of sensitive commodities such as food grains, oilseeds, cotton, sugar, vegetables oil. As a result of this measure, businessmen themselves will have to finance to a greater extent the holding of inventories of goods and will be able to get less credit from banks.




Welfare, GDP Fetishism , Inequality, Consumption, & Happiness.

Introduction

    The word "welfare" has two very different meanings in economics. The most familiar meaning to the general public is that it refers to a collection of government programs such as food stamps and Medicare, usually intended to help the poor.
    However, economists more often use the word "welfare" in a very different sense--as a synonym for wellbeing. Welfare or wellbeing refer to an overall condition, emphasizing happiness and contentment, though also including one's standard of living in financial or material ways. Welfare in this sense more commonly refers to the condition of an entire country or economy, which is sometimes emphasized by using the phrase "social welfare." Welfare in the sense of wellbeing turns out to be an easier concept to imagine than to analyze carefully. It is even harder to measure.
    Economists have always recognized that not all happiness derives from being financially well off. We all know that being wealthy is not the same as being happy. However, it is rather hard to quantify happiness, and even harder to aggregate happiness across people because people generally have a variety of tastes. Consequently, over the years economists have invented some specialized technical names for happiness, including utility, satisfaction, preferences, tastes, indifference curves, wellbeing, and welfare.
    The concept of social welfare sometimes leads to discussions of the distribution of income and income inequality.

Definitions and Basics

    GDP Fetishism 
    When economics professors teach the basics of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), we usually caution our students that it is not a good measure of welfare. Unfortunately, many economists go on to give GDP far more credit than it deserves. They tend to consider fiscal and monetary policy positive if these policies increase GDP, but they often fail to ask, let alone answer, whether those same policies increase or reduce welfare. I have a term for giving GDP such a sacred a place in economists' reasoning: GDP fetishism. If we return to some basic principles of economics, we will avoid GDP fetishism, do better economic analysis, and propose better policies.

    To see why GDP is not the same as wellbeing [I use "welfare" and "wellbeing" interchangeably], consider the definition of GDP. One of the most careful definitions is in The Economic Way of Thinking, 10th edition, by Paul Heyne, Peter Boettke, and David Prychitko. They write: "The gross domestic product is the market value of all the final goods produced in the entire country in the course of a year." Most economists would agree with this definition. It turns out, though, as Heyne et al. point out, that even this careful definition does not accurately characterize GDP, let alone wellbeing. It is inaccurate in two ways. First, because there is usually no market for the things that government produces (the U.S. Postal Service being one of the exceptions), government spending on goods and services is valued at cost rather than at market prices. Second, because many goods and services are not bought or sold, even though they would have a market value if they were, these goods and services are not counted in GDP. In early editions of his best-selling textbook, Economics, the late Paul Samuelsongave his favorite example of this pitfall in GDP accounting. Samuelson pointed out that if a man married his maid, then, all else equal, GDP would fall....
    Welfare, 
    The U.S. welfare system would be an unlikely model for anyone designing a welfare system from scratch. The dozens of programs that make up the "system" have different (sometimes competing) goals, inconsistent rules, and over-lapping groups of beneficiaries. Responsibility for administering the various programs is spread throughout the executive branch of the federal government and across many committees of the U.S. Congress. Responsibilities are also shared with state, county, and city governments, which actually deliver the services and contribute to funding.

    The six programs most commonly associated with the "social safety net" include: (1) Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF), (2) the Food Stamp Program (FSP), (3) Supplemental Security Income (SSI), (4) Medicaid, (5) housing assistance, and (6) the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC). The federal government is the primary funder of all six, although TANF and Medicaid each require a 25-50 percent state funding match. The first five programs are administered locally (by the states, counties, or local federal agencies), whereas EITC operates as part of the regular federal tax system. Outside the six major programs are many smaller government-assistance programs (e.g., Special Supplemental Food Program for Women, Infants and Children [WIC]; general assistance [GA]; school-based food programs; and Low-Income Home Energy Assistance Program [LIHEAP]), which have extensive numbers of participants but pay quite modest benefits....


    Inequality, Consumption, & Happiness. 
    How well-off are we? Using economic data, economics professor Steve Horwitz addresses questions about inequality, consumption, happiness, and well-being. Are the rich getting richer and the poor getting poorer? Is there income mobility in the United States? Are Americans happy? Are we "objectively" better off than we used to be? ...
    Richard Epstein on Happiness, Inequality, and Envy.
    Richard Epstein of the University of Chicago talks with EconTalk host Russ Roberts about the relationship between happiness and wealth, the effects of inequality on happiness, and the economics of envy and altruism. He also applies the theory of evolution to explain some of the findings of the happiness literature....
    Marginalism, 
    Adam Smith struggled with what came to be called the paradox of "value in use" versus "value in exchange." Water is necessary to existence and of enormous value in use; diamonds are frivolous and clearly not essential. But the price of diamonds--their value in exchange--is far higher than that of water. What perplexed Smith is now rationally explained in the first chapters of every college freshman's introductory economics text. Smith had failed to distinguish between "total" utility and "marginal" utility. The elaboration of this insight transformed economics in the late nineteenth century, and the fruits of the marginalist revolution continue to set the basic framework for contemporary microeconomics.

Wednesday, August 30, 2017

Public Goods and Externalities, Government Spending

    Public Goods and Externalities, from the Concise Encyclopedia of Economics
    Most economic arguments for government intervention are based on the idea that the marketplace cannot provide public goods or handle externalities. Public health and welfare programs, education, roads, research and development, national and domestic security, and a clean environment all have been labeled public goods.

    Public goods have two distinct aspects—"nonexcludability" and "nonrivalrous consumption." Nonexcludability means that nonpayers cannot be excluded from the benefits of the good or service. If an entrepreneur stages a fireworks show, for example, people can watch the show from their windows or backyards. Because the entrepreneur cannot charge a fee for consumption, the fireworks show may go unproduced, even if demand for the show is strong....
    Government Spending, from the Concise Encyclopedia of Economics
    In the past, government spending increased during wars and then typically took some time to fall back to its previous level. Because the effects of World War I were not totally gone by 1929, the line for the United States from 1790 to 1929 has a very slight upward slant. But in the second quarter of the twentieth century, government spending began a rapid and steady increase. While economists and political scientists have offered many theories about what determines the level of government spending, there really is no known explanation for either part of this historical record....
    Distribution of Income, from the Concise Encyclopedia of Economics
    The distribution of income is central to one of the most enduring issues in political economics. On one extreme are those who argue that all incomes should be the same, or as nearly so as possible, and that a principal function of government should be to redistribute income from the haves to the have-nots. On the other extreme are those who argue that any income redistribution by government is bad....
    Federal Budget, from the Concise Encyclopedia of Economics
    Deficit spending has been a way of life for the federal government for most years since World War II. A whole generation of elected federal officials has come and gone without ever balancing the budget. The last time that federal budget expenditures were brought into balance with revenues was in 1969, and prior to that the last time was in 1960....
    Taxation, A Preface, from the Concise Encyclopedia of Economics
    Economists specializing in public finance have long enumerated four objectives of tax policy: simplicity, efficiency, fairness, and revenue sufficiency. While these objectives are widely accepted, they often conflict, and different economists have different views of the appropriate balance among them....

In the News and Examples

    Should government help people make better choices? Richard Thaler on Libertarian Paternalism. Podcast on EconTalk
    Richard Thaler of the University of Chicago Graduate School of Business defends the idea of libertarian paternalism--how government might use the insights of behavioral economics to help citizens make better choices. Host Russ Roberts accepts the premise that individuals make imperfect choices but challenges Thaler on the likelihood that government, in practice, will improve matters. Along the way they discuss the design of Sweden's social security system, organ donations and whether professors at Cornell University are more or less like you and me....
    Can taxes correct externalities? Greg Mankiw on Gasoline Taxes, Keynes and Macroeconomics. Podcast on EconTalk
    Greg Mankiw of Harvard University and Greg Mankiw's Blog talks about the state of modern macroeconomics and Keynes vs. the Chicago School. He defends his proposal to raise gasoline taxes and discusses the politics of tax policy....
    Public Schools, from the Concise Encyclopedia of Economics
    By most accounts America's schools are not performing very well. The average combined (verbal and mathematics) score on the Scholastic Aptitude Test was seventy-five points higher in 1963 than it was in 1990. A high school senior ranked at the 50th percentile on the SAT in 1990 would have ranked around the 33rd percentile in 1963. American students trail most of their international counterparts in mathematics and science achievement. Recent comparisons of industrialized countries place the United States between tenth and fifteenth in these economically vital fields. And excellence is not all that is missing. Performance among schools is quite inconsistent. Blacks score nearly two hundred points below whites on the SAT. Urban high schools, which serve disproportionately large numbers of poor families, fail to graduate nearly half of their students; high schools nationwide graduate about four-fifths of theirs....
    Electric Utility Regulation, from the Concise Encyclopedia of Economics
    Two characteristics of electric power make utilities different from most other industries. First, both high-voltage transmission and low-voltage distribution are most economically performed by a single line or a single network of lines. Because a single high-capacity line minimizes both capital costs and losses to electrical resistance per unit of power carried, transmission and distribution are natural monopolies....
    Social Security, from the Concise Encyclopedia of Economics
    The Social Security system, including old-age and survivors insurance, disability insurance, and hospital insurance (Medicare), poses a staggering liability in the years ahead. Benefits in the year 2025, when the retirement of the baby-boom generation is in full swing, are projected to cost 23 percent of taxable payroll in the economy, up from 14 percent today....

A Little History: Primary Sources and References

What is a flat tax? What are the economic implications? Rabushka on the Flat Tax. Podcast on EconTalk
Alvin Rabushka of Stanford University's Hoover Institution lays out the case for the flat tax, a reform of the current system that would replace the 66,000 page U.S. tax code with a single rate and no deductions other than personal exemptions. An individual tax return would fit on a simple postcard. Rabushka discusses the economic changes that would come with such a reform and the adoption of the flat tax around the world since Rabushka and Robert Hall proposed the idea in 1981....

Credit, Bonds, Borrowing, and Lending, Interest, Bank Runs, Deposit Insurance

    Credit, from Dictionary.com
    Definition: credit:
    • 5. confidence in a purchaser's ability and intention to pay, displayed by entrusting the buyer with goods or services without immediate payment.
    • 6. reputation of solvency and probity, entitling a person to be trusted in buying or borrowing: Your credit is good....
    • 8. time allowed for payment for goods or services obtained on trust: 90 days' credit....
    • 10. a sum of money due to a person; anything valuable standing on the credit side of an account: He has an outstanding credit of $50....
    Bonds, Borrowing, and Lending, on Econlib.
    bond is a promise to pay. It is a promise to pay something in the future in exchange for receiving something today.

    Promises—that is, bonds—can be bought and sold. The buyer of a bond is a lender. The seller of a bond is a borrower. The bond buyers pay now in exchange for promises of future repayment—that is, they are lenders. The bond sellers receive money now and in exchange for their promises of future repayment—that is, they are borrowers.

    Bonds can be traded privately between individuals or in organized markets, called bond markets or credit markets.

    You may not realize it, but you buy and sell bonds all the time! Every time you lend someone a few dollars for lunch or borrow your friend's car in exchange for filling her tank, in economic terms you are buying and selling bonds. Simply remembering that bond buyers are lenders, bond sellers are borrowers, and that they are trading not pieces of paper but promises, can unlock the door to understanding both the vocabulary and the economics of a wide range of economic behavior, from private loans to interest rates to government budget deficits. It's much easier to understand borrowing and lending than abstract vocabulary like "the bond market"—even though they are the same thing—because we can by think about our own familiar experiences with borrowing and lending....

    When you use your credit cards or buy on installment, you are a borrower. In each case, someone—a bank or business owner—lends you the money by directly paying for the goods up front on your behalf. The lender later sends you a bill, at which time you are responsible to pay the principal and any accumulated interest to the lender. In economic terms, every time you use your credit card, you sell a bond—your promise to repay the credit card company in the future.

    When you deposit money in a bank, you are a lender! In economic terms, you buy the bank's bond— its commitment to repay you when you decide to use the money. The bank acts as an intermediary (a go-between) and pairs you with a borrower....

    Here's another example. When you buy a Treasury Bill, you are lending to the government. The government sells its promises to pay in organized markets each week....

    Classroom activity. To illustrate these concepts in the classroom, I've often held a bond auction in class!
    Bonds, from the Concise Encyclopedia of Economics
    Bond markets are important components of capital markets. Bonds are fixed-income financial assets--essentially IOUs that promise the holder a specified set of payments. The value of a bond, like the value of any other asset, is the present value of the income stream one expects to receive from holding the bond. This has several implications...
    Interest, from the Concise Encyclopedia of Economics
    Interest rates quoted by lenders usually include much more than "pure" interest. To persuade a lender to surrender current control of resources, the borrower will have to pay, in addition to interest, an amount that compensates the lender for any costs incurred in arranging the transaction, usually including some kind of insurance premium against the risk of default by the borrower. Someone without an established credit rating who applies for an unsecured loan will typically be required to pay "interest" at an annual rate that is several times the prevailing rate of pure interest....
    Credit Union, at About.com
    Definition: An organization that takes deposits and makes loans. Credit Unions are non-profit and run as a co-operative by the depositors of the union....
    Bank Runs, from the Concise Encyclopedia of Economics
    A run on a bank occurs when a large number of depositors, fearing that their bank will be unable to repay their deposits in full and on time, try to withdraw their funds immediately. This creates a problem because banks keep only a small fraction of deposits on hand in cash; they lend out the majority of deposits to borrowers or use the funds to purchase other interest-bearing assets like government securities. When a run comes, a bank must quickly increase its liquidity to meet depositors' demands. It does so primarily by selling assets, frequently at fire-sale prices. Losses on these sales can make the bank insolvent....
    Bankruptcy, from the Concise Encyclopedia of Economics
    Bankruptcy is common in America today. Notwithstanding two decades of largely uninterrupted economic growth, the annual bankruptcy filing rate has quintupled, topping 1.5 million individuals annually. Recent years also have seen several of the largest and most expensive corporate bankruptcies in history. This confluence of skyrocketing personal bankruptcies in a period of prosperity, an increasingly expensive and dysfunctional Chapter 11 reorganization system, and the macroeconomic competitive pressures of globalization has spurred legislative efforts to reform the bankruptcy code....
    Housing, from the Concise Encyclopedia of Economics
    ... Assuming a family can spend 30 percent of its income on a mortgage, even with low 5 percent interest rates a family must earn more than $135,000 per year to afford the median-priced new home. If the above estimates are correct, regulations such as urban growth boundaries, moratoriums on building permits, environmental regulations, and other restrictions raise home prices as much as $300,000 in this county. Put another way, the portion of purchase price paid by residents of Santa Clara County due to regulation is almost enough to buy three complete homes of median value elsewhere in the United States....

In the News and Examples

    Todd Zywicki on Debt and Bankruptcy, podcast on EconTalk, March 2, 2009.
    Todd Zywicki, of George Mason University Law School, talks with EconTalk host Russ Roberts about the evolving world of consumer debt and how institutions and public policy have influenced consumer access to debt and credit. Zywicki defends consumer credit as a crucial benefit to consumers and that innovation has made credit cheaper and more effective. He also talks about how misleading it can be to look at only one piece or another of credit picture. The conversation concludes with a discussion of the evolution of bankruptcy law in the United States....

A Little History: Primary Sources and References

    Deposit Insurance, from the Concise Encyclopedia of Economics
    Federal deposit insurance became law for commercial banks in 1933 as part of the Glass-Steagall Act, and for S&Ls in 1934. Although a number of state governments had provided deposit insurance before 1933, most state programs had failed and all had been disbanded by then. The federal program was enacted only after long debate.

    The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) and the Federal Savings and Loan Insurance Corporation (FSLIC) were both established in 1934....
    Savings and Loan Bailouts, at About.com
    For a while, the system worked well. In the 1960s and 1970s, almost all Americans got S&L financing for buying their homes. Interest rates paid on deposits at S&Ls were kept low, but millions of Americans put their money in them because deposit insurance made them an extremely safe place to invest. Starting in the 1960s, however, general interest rate levels began rising with inflation. By the 1980s, many depositors started seeking higher returns by putting their savings into money market funds and other non-bank assets. This put banks and savings and loans in a dire financial squeeze, unable to attract new deposits to cover their large portfolios of long-term loans....

Market failure, Public Goods and Externalities, New Keynesian Economics

Definition: Market failure,
An economic term that encompasses a situation where, in any given market, the quantity of a product demanded by consumers does not equate to the quantity supplied by suppliers. This is a direct result of a lack of certain economically ideal factors, which prevents equilibrium....
Public goods and externalities. What is an externality? Public Goods and Externalities, from the Concise Encyclopedia of Economics
Most economic arguments for government intervention are based on the idea that the marketplace cannot provide public goods or handle externalities. Public health and welfare programs, education, roads, research and development, national and domestic security, and a clean environment all have been labeled public goods....

Externalities occur when one person's actions affect another person's well-being and the relevant costs and benefits are not reflected in market prices. A positive externality arises when my neighbors benefit from my cleaning up my yard. If I cannot charge them for these benefits, I will not clean the yard as often as they would like. (Note that the free-rider problem and positive externalities are two sides of the same coin.) A negative externality arises when one person's actions harm another. When polluting, factory owners may not consider the costs that pollution imposes on others....
What is a public good? Defense, from the Concise Encyclopedia of Economics
National defense is a public good. That means two things. First, consumption of the good by one person does not reduce the amount available for others to consume. Thus, all people in a nation must "consume" the same amount of national defense (the defense policy established by the government). Second, the benefits a person derives from a public good do not depend on how much that person contributes toward providing it. Everyone benefits, perhaps in differing amounts, from national defense, including those who do not pay taxes. Once the government organizes the resources for national defense, it necessarily defends all residents against foreign aggressors....
Market-clearing vs. sticky prices: New Keynesian Economics, from the Concise Encyclopedia of Economics
The primary disagreement between new classical and new Keynesian economists is over how quickly wages and prices adjust. New classical economists build their macroeconomic theories on the assumption that wages and prices are flexible. They believe that prices "clear" markets—balance supply and demand—by adjusting quickly. New Keynesian economists, however, believe that market-clearing models cannot explain short-run economic fluctuations, and so they advocate models with "sticky" wages and prices. New Keynesian theories rely on this stickiness of wages and prices to explain why involuntary unemployment exists and why monetary policy has such a strong influence on economic activity....
Markets can fail if there are no property rights and negotiation is costly. The Coase Theorem: Ronald H. Coase, biography from the Concise Encyclopedia of Economics
"The Problem of Social Cost," Coase's other widely cited article (661 citations between 1966 and 1980), was even more path-breaking. Indeed, it gave rise to the field called law and economics. Economists b.c. (Before Coase) of virtually all political persuasions had accepted British economist Arthur Pigou's idea that if, say, a cattle rancher's cows destroy his neighboring farmer's crops, the government should stop the rancher from letting his cattle roam free or should at least tax him for doing so. Otherwise, believed economists, the cattle would continue to destroy crops because the rancher would have no incentive to stop them.

But Coase challenged the accepted view. He pointed out that if the rancher had no legal liability for destroying the farmer's crops, and if transaction costs were zero, the farmer could come to a mutually beneficial agreement with the rancher under which the farmer paid the rancher to cut back on his herd of cattle. This would happen, argued Coase, if the damage from additional cattle exceeded the rancher's net returns on these cattle. If for example, the rancher's net return on a steer was two dollars, then the rancher would accept some amount over two dollars to give up the additional steer. If the steer was doing three dollars' worth of harm to the crops, then the farmer would be willing to pay the rancher up to three dollars to get rid of the steer. A mutually beneficial bargain would be struck....


In the News and Examples
Pollution Controls, from the Concise Encyclopedia of Economics
While there is general agreement that we must control pollution of our air, water, and land, various interest groups, public agencies, and experts have disputed just how we should control it. The pollution control mechanisms adopted in the United States have tended toward detailed regulation of technology....


A Little History: Primary Sources and References
John Maynard Keynes, biography from the Concise Encyclopedia of Economics
Advanced Resources
An Education in Market Failure, by Morgan Rose. Teacher's Corner at Econlib
Markets are fantastic at allocating resources well by making sure that if there is a good or a service that a person values more highly than it would cost to produce it, then somebody (maybe the same person, but most likely not) will decide to produce it, a market exchange will take place, and both parties will be better off. If I think an order of chicken wings is worth more than six dollars....

Markets can be problematic where the net private benefit of a market transaction does not equal the net social benefit, which is the social benefit (the sum of private benefits of all individuals in a society) minus the social cost (the sum of private costs of all individuals in a society)....


TYPES OF MICRO ECONOMICS

     The analysis of microeconomics is always affected by time period. But there are still some economists who do not believe the time value...